Sixty-one of the students took an exam in a seat numbered 17, which is widely considered unlucky in Italian culture (for example, cinemas and theatres avoid having a 17th row for this reason). One hundred and eight students took an exam in a lucky seat, numbered either 13 or 30 (again, in Italian culture these numbers are considered good omens). The remainder of the students sat in seats with neutral numbers. To reinforce the influence of the seat numbers they were also printed on the exam papers. After the exam was over, the students were asked how well they thought they'd done in the exam, and how well they thought their peers would have done.
Overall, the students were overconfident. When the researchers later looked up their actual exam results, the students thought they'd performed better than they had. This overconfidence was exaggerated by sitting in a lucky seat - students in such a position showed an even more inflated belief in their ability than the students in neutral seats. Students sitting in an unlucky seat were unaffected by the connotations of their seat number. Actual exam performance was also unaffected by the seat numbers, lucky or unlucky.
The researchers also analysed the results by gender and found a key difference. Men were influenced by sitting in a lucky seat - their over-confidence was boosted - but not bothered by an unlucky seat. Women showed the opposite pattern. They were unaffected by sitting in a lucky seat, but their overconfidence was dented by an unlucky seat.
The researchers said this gender difference fits with prior research that's suggested women are more fearful than men of potentially negative outcomes, and more prone to pessimism. To help correct these biases, De Paola and her team said that "one should try to have women focus upon benefits and men upon costs. This would help give the right weight to both positive and negative aspects and improve their decision making processes."
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De Paola, M., Gioia, F., & Scoppa, V. (2014). Overconfidence, omens and gender heterogeneity: Results from a field experiment Journal of Economic Psychology, 45, 237-252 DOI: 10.1016/j.joep.2014.10.005
--further reading--
Lucky number plates go up in value when times are bad
We like to exploit the luck of others
Post written by Christian Jarrett (@psych_writer) for the BPS Research Digest.
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